Beating the Odds — Modelo de análise de futebol 2026/27

Premier League

Jornada de 12.09 a 14.09 MSE do modelo 0.6324 10 jogos

Over 2.56

Under 2.54

Ambas marcam6

Não marcam4

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
12.09.2026 14:00	Aston VillaNottingham	1.75	1.14	2.89	+0.61	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	BournemouthBrentford	2.76	2.59	5.35	+0.17	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	ChelseaHull	1.19	0.79	1.97	+0.4	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	Crystal PalaceIpswich	3.26	2.68	5.94	+0.57	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	LiverpoolFulham	2.11	0.41	2.52	+1.7	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 16:30	TottenhamEverton	-1.68	0.12	-1.56	-1.8	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 19:00	SunderlandArsenal	-1.13	1.13	0.00	-2.26	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 13:00	CoventryBrighton	1.81	3.36	5.17	-1.56	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 15:30	Manchester UtdManchester City	2.00	2.66	4.66	-0.66	OVER 2.5	SIM
14.09.2026 19:00	LeedsNewcastle	1.11	0.28	1.40	+0.83	UNDER 2.5	NÃO

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Aston Villa vs Nottingham	0.00	0.23	0.77	0.44	0.56	0.00	2.3	1.8	2043174.0
Bournemouth vs Brentford	0.31	0.37	0.31	0.25	0.75	0.27	4.0	1.3	3.7
Chelsea vs Hull	0.54	0.17	0.29	0.90	0.10	0.85	1.1	10.4	1.2
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich	0.07	0.04	0.90	0.99	0.01	0.78	1.0	90.1	1.3
Liverpool vs Fulham	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Tottenham vs Everton	0.00	0.23	0.77	0.44	0.56	0.00	2.3	1.8	2043174.0
Sunderland vs Arsenal	0.52	0.48	0.00	0.04	0.96	0.00	25.5	1.0	2133031045.3
Coventry vs Brighton	0.00	0.11	0.89	0.65	0.35	0.00	1.5	2.9	46159.6
Manchester Utd vs Manchester City	0.98	0.01	0.01	1.00	0.00	1.00	1.0	4640949.7	1.0
Leeds vs Newcastle	0.38	0.24	0.38	0.63	0.37	0.60	1.6	2.7	1.7

Championship

Jornada de 11.09 a 13.09 MSE do modelo 1.5176 12 jogos

Over 2.57

Under 2.55

Ambas marcam9

Não marcam3

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
11.09.2026 19:00	West HamWrexham	1.64	1.34	2.98	+0.29	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 11:30	BoltonCardiff	1.67	1.79	3.46	-0.11	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 11:30	DerbyBirmingham	0.43	1.60	2.03	-1.17	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 11:30	West BromQPR	1.04	0.40	1.43	+0.64	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	BlackburnMillwall	1.25	1.99	3.24	-0.74	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	CharltonPortsmouth	1.77	1.13	2.90	+0.64	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	MiddlesbroughNorwich	1.93	1.50	3.43	+0.42	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	PrestonLincoln	0.63	0.92	1.55	-0.29	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	SouthamptonBristol City	2.90	1.28	4.18	+1.62	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	SwanseaBurnley	2.17	0.31	2.48	+1.85	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	WatfordStoke	1.22	0.85	2.08	+0.37	UNDER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 11:00	Sheffield UtdWolves	2.08	2.41	4.49	-0.34	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
West Ham vs Wrexham	0.67	0.16	0.17	0.81	0.19	0.71	1.2	5.1	1.4
Bolton vs Cardiff	0.30	0.28	0.43	0.50	0.50	0.48	2.0	2.0	2.1
Derby vs Birmingham	0.12	0.25	0.63	0.50	0.50	0.32	2.0	2.0	3.1
West Brom vs QPR	0.67	0.19	0.14	0.61	0.39	0.52	1.6	2.6	1.9
Blackburn vs Millwall	0.31	0.22	0.47	0.74	0.26	0.68	1.3	3.9	1.5
Charlton vs Portsmouth	0.63	0.25	0.12	0.37	0.63	0.32	2.7	1.6	3.1
Middlesbrough vs Norwich	0.65	0.21	0.14	0.54	0.46	0.47	1.9	2.2	2.1
Preston vs Lincoln	0.21	0.23	0.56	0.65	0.35	0.55	1.5	2.8	1.8
Southampton vs Bristol City	0.94	0.03	0.03	0.99	0.01	0.85	1.0	119.0	1.2
Swansea vs Burnley	0.41	0.59	0.00	0.02	0.98	0.00	61.3	1.0	77915600549.7
Watford vs Stoke	0.49	0.29	0.23	0.39	0.61	0.40	2.6	1.6	2.5
Sheffield Utd vs Wolves	0.31	0.17	0.52	0.93	0.07	0.87	1.1	14.7	1.1

League One

Jornada de 12.09 MSE do modelo 2.4315 11 jogos

Over 2.57

Under 2.54

Ambas marcam8

Não marcam3

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
12.09.2026 11:30	Leyton OrientWycombe	2.07	0.87	2.94	+1.2	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 11:30	Notts CountyBradford City	0.93	-0.04	0.88	+0.97	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	AFC WimbledonDoncaster	0.75	0.53	1.28	+0.22	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	BlackpoolBromley	3.57	0.42	3.99	+3.15	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	Cambridge UtdReading	1.53	2.58	4.11	-1.05	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	MK DonsPeterborough	1.78	0.68	2.46	+1.1	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	MansfieldHuddersfield	1.13	2.68	3.81	-1.54	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	Oxford UtdBurton	3.11	2.12	5.23	+0.99	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	PlymouthBarnsley	2.09	1.22	3.31	+0.88	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	Sheffield WedWigan	3.33	1.19	4.52	+2.13	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	Stockport CountyLeicester	1.93	0.13	2.06	+1.8	UNDER 2.5	NÃO

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Leyton Orient vs Wycombe	0.16	0.24	0.61	0.57	0.43	0.42	1.8	2.3	2.4
Notts County vs Bradford City	0.32	0.49	0.18	0.08	0.92	0.12	11.9	1.1	8.3
AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster	0.42	0.58	0.00	0.02	0.98	0.00	56.1	1.0	54519037689.4
Blackpool vs Bromley	0.83	0.12	0.05	0.63	0.37	0.37	1.6	2.7	2.7
Cambridge Utd vs Reading	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
MK Dons vs Peterborough	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Mansfield vs Huddersfield	0.78	0.11	0.11	0.91	0.09	0.77	1.1	10.7	1.3
Oxford Utd vs Burton	0.42	0.20	0.38	0.82	0.18	0.77	1.2	5.7	1.3
Plymouth vs Barnsley	0.40	0.24	0.36	0.66	0.34	0.63	1.5	3.0	1.6
Sheffield Wed vs Wigan	0.70	0.17	0.13	0.70	0.30	0.59	1.4	3.4	1.7
Stockport County vs Leicester	0.50	0.33	0.17	0.24	0.76	0.27	4.1	1.3	3.8

League Two

Jornada de 12.09 MSE do modelo 0.9816 12 jogos

Over 2.58

Under 2.54

Ambas marcam8

Não marcam4

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
12.09.2026 11:30	CrawleyCheltenham	1.39	1.97	3.35	-0.58	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 11:30	GrimsbyBristol Rovers	1.78	1.52	3.31	+0.26	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	BarnetAccrington	3.82	2.60	6.41	+1.22	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	ColchesterCrewe	0.86	0.84	1.70	+0.02	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	GillinghamTranmere	1.70	1.41	3.10	+0.29	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	NewportFleetwood	1.61	1.78	3.39	-0.17	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	OldhamChesterfield	1.96	0.70	2.66	+1.27	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:00	Port ValeExeter	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	-0.88	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	RotherhamSalford	1.53	-0.57	0.96	+2.09	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	ShrewsburyNorthampton	-0.31	0.78	0.47	-1.08	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	WalsallRochdale	2.99	-0.49	2.50	+3.47	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 14:00	York CitySwindon	2.85	1.61	4.46	+1.24	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Crawley vs Cheltenham	0.00	0.06	0.94	0.76	0.24	0.00	1.3	4.2	6887.0
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers	0.62	0.16	0.22	0.88	0.12	0.80	1.1	8.1	1.2
Barnet vs Accrington	0.62	0.18	0.20	0.77	0.23	0.69	1.3	4.3	1.5
Colchester vs Crewe	0.45	0.44	0.10	0.09	0.91	0.11	11.4	1.1	9.2
Gillingham vs Tranmere	0.08	0.13	0.79	0.80	0.20	0.50	1.3	4.9	2.0
Newport vs Fleetwood	0.80	0.11	0.09	0.89	0.11	0.73	1.1	9.4	1.4
Oldham vs Chesterfield	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.46	0.54	0.00	2.2	1.9	15304.8
Port Vale vs Exeter	0.18	0.65	0.16	0.03	0.97	0.05	34.0	1.0	21.9
Rotherham vs Salford	0.39	0.41	0.20	0.16	0.84	0.20	6.4	1.2	5.1
Shrewsbury vs Northampton	0.23	0.42	0.35	0.19	0.81	0.20	5.2	1.2	5.1
Walsall vs Rochdale	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
York City vs Swindon	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—

Liga Portugal

Jornada de 12.09 a 14.09 MSE do modelo 1.1926 9 jogos

Over 2.55

Under 2.54

Ambas marcam6

Não marcam3

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
12.09.2026 14:30	NacionalAlverca	1.47	1.65	3.12	-0.19	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 17:00	Casa PiaFC Porto	-1.11	3.04	1.93	-4.14	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 19:30	Academico ViseuVitoria Guimaraes	0.98	0.57	1.54	+0.41	UNDER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 17:00	AroucaSanta Clara	0.78	1.34	2.12	-0.55	UNDER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 17:00	BenficaGil Vicente	2.49	0.23	2.72	+2.26	OVER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 19:30	FamalicaoSporting CP	0.65	2.86	3.50	-2.21	OVER 2.5	SIM
14.09.2026 17:45	Rio AveEstrela	1.13	3.16	4.29	-2.03	OVER 2.5	SIM
14.09.2026 19:15	MoreirenseMaritimo	0.89	1.95	2.84	-1.06	OVER 2.5	SIM
14.09.2026 19:45	BragaEstoril	0.93	0.40	1.33	+0.52	UNDER 2.5	NÃO

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Nacional vs Alverca	0.37	0.40	0.23	0.18	0.82	0.22	5.5	1.2	4.5
Casa Pia vs FC Porto	0.11	0.00	0.89	0.99	0.01	0.11	1.0	156.7	9.1
Academico Viseu vs Vitoria Guimaraes	0.00	0.24	0.76	0.42	0.58	0.00	2.4	1.7	2868242.4
Arouca vs Santa Clara	0.81	0.14	0.04	0.49	0.51	0.27	2.0	2.0	3.7
Benfica vs Gil Vicente	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Famalicao vs Sporting CP	0.19	0.20	0.60	0.72	0.28	0.60	1.4	3.6	1.7
Rio Ave vs Estrela	0.02	0.00	0.97	0.97	0.03	0.02	1.0	33.6	46.3
Moreirense vs Maritimo	0.10	0.12	0.78	0.88	0.12	0.65	1.1	8.0	1.5
Braga vs Estoril	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00	147.5	1.0	2532958170624.6

Ligue 1

Jornada de 11.09 a 13.09 MSE do modelo 1.2662 9 jogos

Over 2.56

Under 2.53

Ambas marcam5

Não marcam4

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
11.09.2026 18:45	RennesMarseille	2.00	3.09	5.08	-1.09	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 15:15	StrasbourgMonaco	0.40	2.16	2.56	-1.76	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 18:45	AuxerreNice	1.74	3.32	5.06	-1.58	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 18:45	Le HavreAngers	1.24	0.27	1.50	+0.97	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 18:45	LorientToulouse	0.14	0.23	0.37	-0.1	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 18:45	Paris FCLyon	1.14	0.06	1.20	+1.08	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 13:00	LilleTroyes	2.69	1.14	3.83	+1.55	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 15:15	Le MansLens	1.78	1.55	3.33	+0.23	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 18:45	BrestPSG	2.12	2.93	5.06	-0.81	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Rennes vs Marseille	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Strasbourg vs Monaco	0.60	0.22	0.18	0.57	0.43	0.52	1.7	2.3	1.9
Auxerre vs Nice	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Le Havre vs Angers	0.10	0.14	0.76	0.82	0.18	0.58	1.2	5.6	1.7
Lorient vs Toulouse	0.18	0.18	0.64	0.80	0.20	0.67	1.2	5.1	1.5
Paris FC vs Lyon	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.74	0.26	0.00	1.4	3.8	462.8
Lille vs Troyes	0.42	0.18	0.40	0.90	0.10	0.85	1.1	10.3	1.2
Le Mans vs Lens	0.37	0.27	0.36	0.53	0.47	0.52	1.9	2.1	1.9
Brest vs PSG	0.42	0.18	0.40	0.90	0.10	0.85	1.1	10.3	1.2

Serie A

Jornada de 11.09 a 13.09 MSE do modelo 0.4154 7 jogos

Over 2.54

Under 2.53

Ambas marcam6

Não marcam1

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
11.09.2026 18:45	VeneziaFiorentina	1.28	1.49	2.78	-0.21	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 13:00	GenoaFrosinone	0.84	2.89	3.72	-2.05	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 16:00	LazioAC Milan	0.60	0.81	1.40	-0.21	UNDER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 18:45	AtalantaCagliari	0.03	-0.55	-0.53	+0.58	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 13:00	LecceMonza	1.65	1.44	3.10	+0.21	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 16:00	NapoliBologna	1.05	1.32	2.37	-0.26	UNDER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 18:45	SassuoloJuventus	0.66	1.92	2.58	-1.26	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Venezia vs Fiorentina	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Genoa vs Frosinone	0.07	0.02	0.91	0.99	0.01	0.68	1.0	104.0	1.5
Lazio vs AC Milan	0.67	0.33	0.00	0.10	0.90	0.00	10.1	1.1	39063961.7
Atalanta vs Cagliari	0.55	0.33	0.12	0.19	0.81	0.20	5.2	1.2	5.1
Lecce vs Monza	0.00	0.06	0.94	0.77	0.23	0.00	1.3	4.3	5979.2
Napoli vs Bologna	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Sassuolo vs Juventus	0.55	0.27	0.18	0.40	0.60	0.39	2.5	1.7	2.6

Bundesliga

Jornada de 11.09 a 13.09 MSE do modelo 0.119 9 jogos

Over 2.58

Under 2.51

Ambas marcam3

Não marcam6

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
11.09.2026 18:30	Union BerlinSchalke	0.69	2.85	3.54	-2.15	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 13:30	AugsburgBayer Leverkusen	3.11	0.28	3.38	+2.83	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 13:30	DortmundPaderborn	-1.84	0.92	-0.91	-2.76	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 13:30	FreiburgB. Monchengladbach	4.78	-1.04	3.75	+5.82	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 13:30	HoffenheimStuttgart	3.63	4.70	8.33	-1.08	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 13:30	MainzEintracht Frankfurt	3.26	-0.31	2.95	+3.57	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 16:30	FC KolnWerder Bremen	-0.27	3.71	3.43	-3.98	OVER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 13:30	RB LeipzigHamburger SV	4.55	-0.68	3.88	+5.23	OVER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 15:30	ElversbergBayern Munich	3.46	3.70	7.16	-0.24	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Union Berlin vs Schalke	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.74	0.26	0.00	1.4	3.8	462.8
Dortmund vs Paderborn	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Freiburg vs B. Monchengladbach	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart	0.25	0.22	0.52	0.70	0.30	0.62	1.4	3.3	1.6
Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
FC Koln vs Werder Bremen	0.52	0.22	0.25	0.66	0.34	0.62	1.5	2.9	1.6
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Elversberg vs Bayern Munich	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—

La Liga

Jornada de 11.09 a 13.09 MSE do modelo 1.8487 9 jogos

Over 2.57

Under 2.52

Ambas marcam6

Não marcam3

Previsões — próximos jogos

Data	Equipas	xG casa	xG fora	Total	Dif. xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
11.09.2026 19:00	SevillaValencia	2.81	-0.28	2.53	+3.09	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 12:00	Racing SantanderAlaves	1.51	3.10	4.60	-1.59	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 14:15	OsasunaEspanyol	1.02	1.55	2.57	-0.53	OVER 2.5	SIM
12.09.2026 16:30	Ath BilbaoElche	2.74	-0.14	2.60	+2.88	OVER 2.5	NÃO
12.09.2026 19:00	Real MadridRayo Vallecano	2.88	1.44	4.32	+1.44	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 12:00	Celta VigoMalaga	0.38	-0.16	0.22	+0.54	UNDER 2.5	NÃO
13.09.2026 14:15	LevanteBarcelona	1.05	3.97	5.02	-2.92	OVER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 16:30	GetafeDep. A Coruna	1.11	1.34	2.45	-0.23	UNDER 2.5	SIM
13.09.2026 19:00	Real SociedadAtl. Madrid	1.71	2.17	3.88	-0.47	OVER 2.5	SIM

Análise gráfica

Golos esperados — casa vs fora

Casa Fora

Total esperado vs linha 2.5

Over Under 2.5

Probabilidades do modelo & fair odds

Jogo	Probabilidades do modelo						Fair odds
Jogo	P casa	P empate	P fora	P over	P under	P ambas	Fair over	Fair under	Fair ambas
Sevilla vs Valencia	0.29	0.26	0.45	0.57	0.43	0.53	1.7	2.3	1.9
Racing Santander vs Alaves	0.48	0.22	0.30	0.70	0.30	0.66	1.4	3.3	1.5
Osasuna vs Espanyol	0.32	0.68	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00	140.3	1.0	2082589423061.5
Ath Bilbao vs Elche	0.52	0.20	0.28	0.79	0.21	0.73	1.3	4.7	1.4
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano	0.96	0.03	0.01	0.89	0.11	0.43	1.1	9.1	2.3
Celta Vigo vs Malaga	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	—	1.0	—
Levante vs Barcelona	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	1.0	1138969642.2	1.0
Getafe vs Dep. A Coruna	0.56	0.26	0.18	0.43	0.57	0.41	2.3	1.8	2.4
Real Sociedad vs Atl. Madrid	0.50	0.32	0.18	0.28	0.72	0.29	3.6	1.4	3.4

Over 2.5 (total ≥ 2.5) Under 2.5 (total < 2.5) BTTS sim (ambos ≥ 0.5) BTTS não (um lado < 0.5)